[2월4일 세계언론 속 아시아]‘IS인질 고토 참수’ 아베 지지율에 미칠 영향은?

[아시아엔 편집국] 지난 1일 공개된 IS의 일본인 인질 참수는 전세계를 경악에 빠뜨렸다. <아시아엔>은 서로 다른 시각으로 이번 사건을 바라보는 카타르 <알 자지라>와 중국 <글로벌 타임즈>의 사설, 일본 미키 에바라 편집장의 인터뷰를 정리해 향후 일본 대외정책의 변화 가능성과 아베 총리의 지지율에 미칠 영향을 분석했다.

<알 자지라>
일본 인질 참수로 日 여론 돌아서…아베 정권 위기?
2014년 8월 시리아에서 IS에 납치된 일본인 하루나 유카와가 IS측이 제시한 협상 기일인 2015년 1월23일을 넘긴 직후 살해당했다. 또한 IS에 붙잡힌 또다른 인질 고토 겐지도 참수돼 일본 열도가 슬픔에 잠겼다.
이에 대해 아베 정부는 “일본은 테러단체에 절대 굴복하지 않을 것이다. 국제사회와 함께 테러에 맞설 것”이라 밝혔다.?일본 국민들은 그동안 아베 정부의 외교, 국방 정책에 지지를 보냈으나, 이번 사건으로 인해 여론의 움직임이 심상치 않다.

세계 3위 경제대국 일본은 자원이 부족해 에너지안보에 어려움을 겪고 있다. 일본은 90% 이상의 탄화수소를 중동으로부터 수입하며, 중동은 에너지 주 공급원으로 2차대전 이후 일본의 경제발전에 기여해왔다.

일본과 중동은 오랜 세월 교역해왔으나, 일본 정부는 경제적 협력관계를 정치적 우호관계까지 확장시키는 데는 실패했다. 미국의 우방 일본은 이란과 맺었던 투자계약을 중단하고, 1991년 걸프전에서 NATO에 130억달러를 지원하는 등 서방세력을 지지해왔다.

인질 참수에 앞서 일본은 IS 위협에 맞서기 위해 국제사회에 2억달러를 내놓겠다고 밝혔다. 일본이 서구에 ‘신뢰할 수 있는 우방’이란 확신을 심어주기 위한 포석이었으나, 도리어 IS를 자극해 참사가 빚어졌다.

일본인 참수로 인해 자국 여론이 돌아설 가능성이 높아지자 정부의 對 IS 강경책도 주춤할 것으로 보인다. 아베 행정부는 서구와의 우호관계 유지, IS의 위협, 자국민의 외면 등 안팎으로 위기에 직면해 있다. 번역·요약 노지영 인턴기자

Abe’s vision under threat
Haruna Yukawa, a private military contractor who was kidnapped in Syria last August, was allegedly killed when Japan missed the January 23 deadline for payment of the ransom. Subsequently, ISIL offered a “prisoner swap” deal, demanding the freedom of an ISIL member, currently in Jordanian custody, in exchange for the safe release of the second Japanese hostage, Goto, a prominent freelance journalist. It marked the first time that ISIL took Japanese citizens, who were abducted in Syria.

In line with the position of western powers, particularly the US, Abe adopted a tough stance against paying any ransom to ISIL, declaring “Japan will never yield to terrorism. Japan will do its best in the battle against the cowardice of terrorism, hand in hand with the international community.”

Under Abe’s leadership, Japan has embarked on an ambitious plan to overhaul its foreign and defence policies. Abe’s decisive brand of leadership has won him tremendous popularity at home, but Japan’s deeply pacifist culture has constrained Abe’s plan to make Japan an increasingly independent and influential actor on the global stage. The hostage tragedy, however, could further strengthen domestic opposition to Abe’s vision.

Resource-poor Japan, a leading industrial power and the world’s third largest economy, continues to be among the least energy secure countries on earth – a conundrum that was compounded by the Fukushima crisis in 2011. The Middle East alone is responsible for almost 90 percent of Japan’s hydrocarbon imports. Japan’s post-World War II “economic miracle” was largely fuelled by Middle Eastern energy resources, with such staggering level of dependence repeatedly exposing the Asian country to upheavals across the Arab world and beyond. It is no wonder that Japan was one of the most severely affected countries during the “oil shocks” of the 1970s and 1980s.

For a long time, Japan stood as a top trading partner of many Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, but Tokyo struggled to translate its robust economic relations into a coherent source of influence across the Middle East. As a major ally of the US, which has acted as the main guarantor of the Asian country’s national security for decades, Japan has had to repeatedly toe Washington’s line, from freezing major investment in Iran, to supporting NATO operations against Saddam’s Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War.

Constrained by a pacifist constitution, which bars the country from offensively projecting its military prowess, Japan mainly served – to the dismay of its western partners – as a source of logistical and financial support throughout repeated western military interventions in the Middle East. Japan was the largest extra-regional financier during the first Gulf war, contributing as much $13bn to NATO operations against Iraq.

With the rapid rise of China, and growing volatility in the Korean Peninsula, Japan has had to revisit its foreign policy doctrine in recent years. After years of dangerous territorial showdown between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, Abe was able to reclaim the mantle of leadership by promising economic revival and national rejuvenation to a worried public.

True to his words, Abe has introduced major economic reforms, dubbed as “Abenomics”, which have so far, fallen short of ending Japan’s decades-long economic stagnation. But he has been more decisive in refashioning Japan’s foreign policy by visiting dozens of countries across multiple continents in the last two years, increasing military aid to strategic partners such as the Philippines and Vietnam, relaxing restrictions on export of military hardware, and enhancing the Japanese Self-Defence Forces’ ability to withstand external threat and aid allies in times of crisis.

Earlier this year, Abe endorsed the country’s biggest post-World War II defence budget, allocating $42bn to the maintenance of Japan’s formidable military muscle as well as state-of-the-art military acquisitions such F-35 stealth fighter jets, Aegis combat systems, P-1 maritime patrol aircrafts, components of Northrop Grumman RQ-4 drones, among others.

His pledge of $200m to help international efforts against ISIL was part of Abe’s to enhance Japan’s profile as a reliable partner of the West and a key contributor to international security.
Nonetheless, the tragic death of the two Japanese hostages has rekindled lingering concerns with Abe’s plans to recalibrate Japan’s foreign commitments, potentially galvanising greater opposition to his vision of a more proactive Japanese foreign policy.

Abe has faced a difficult balancing task of reassuring allies of Japan’s continued commitment to its international obligations – specifically, not giving into ISIL’s demands as encouraged by the US and its western partners – while preventing a full-scale alienation of the staunchly pacifist electorate at home, which will more likely shun a more proactive Japanese foreign policy as it mourns the grievous death of two Japanese citizens.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/02/abe-vision-threat-150201060458999.html

<글로벌 타임즈>(환구시보)
아베 정권 반등 기회 될 수도…
비평가들은 일본인 인질 참수 사건이 외교당국의 역량 부족과 ‘적극적 평화주의’의 결점을 드러낸 사례라고 비판했다. 더불어 이들은 아베의 지지율 역시 급락할 것이라 전망했다. 아베 정부의 외교정책이 현 시대 국가안보에 적합하지 않다는 비판도 나오고 있다.

이와 다른 견해를 보인 이들도 있다. 이들은 이번 사태를 ‘양날의 검’이라고 평했다. 아베 정부가 이를 잘 이용한다면 지지율을 반등시킬 수 있기 때문이다. 미국이 주도하는 ‘테러와의 전쟁’에서 일본의 발언권도 높아질 것이란 전망도 있다.

이번 사태는 아베 정권 지지율에 어떠한 영향을 줄까? G7회원국 일본은 IS의 인질교환 제안을 거절했다. 이는 서구의 가치와 사고를 따른 강경대응책이었다. 아베 정부는 ‘국제 외교질서를 따르는 국가’란 평판을 얻게 됐고, 미국은 인질을 구하려는 일본 정부의 노고를 인정하고 지지했다.

대다수 일본 국민들은 정부의 경고를 무시하고 위험국가로 떠나 인질로 잡힌 두 시민의 행동을 이해할 수 없다는 반응이다. 아베 정부는 이러한 심리를 잘 알고 있기 때문에, 이를 이용해 지지율을 높일 것이다. 아베의 지지율 상승은 비전통·초국가적 안보위협에 직면한 국제 외교무대에서 일본이 활약할 수 있는 원동력이 될 것이다. 번역·요약 노지영 인턴기자

Will hostage killings work in Abe’s favor?

Critics say that the killings of the two captives demonstrate that Japan’s diplomacy lacks maturity and that there are many loopholes in Abe’s proactive pacifism, which will deal a heavy blow to the prime minister’s approval rating.

Those who take a pessimistic attitude claim the incident shows that Abe’s diplomacy cannot adapt to the current trend of non-traditional security cooperation without powerful security as backup. Abe will lose credibility if he fails to properly handle this incident.

Rational analysts hold that the catastrophe may serve as a double-edged sword which, if appropriately used, will help raise Abe’s domestic rating. Some believe this incident will push Japan into the US-led global war on terror, thus providing an opportunity for Tokyo to explore a new model to tackle traditional and non-traditional security.
They project Abe’s support will sharply rise.

So, will the approval rating for Abe’s cabinet tumble because of the killings of the two hostages or improve? All indications show that Abe’s support has now recovered and is even heading upward. Some clues can be tracked from his diplomatic maneuvers. As a major member state of the US-dominated G7, Japan paid attention to the demand of Washington to reject negotiations with IS. Instead, it made decisions in conformity with Western values and ideals of non-traditional security cooperation including the global anti-terror endeavor.

Keeping in step with the West has helped Abe’s global-trotting diplomacy and proactive pacifism gain recognition in the developed world. Tokyo has also won verbal support from Washington in its effort to secure the release of the hostages, even though it failed.

The majority of the Japanese do not accept the conduct of the two hostages who neglected the safety warnings issued by the government. They exclude people who cause trouble for others, let alone those bringing such grave consequences for the whole nation. Deeply aware of the mind-set, Abe has taken advantage of this incident to garner support. In addition, the killing of the hostages has helped the Japanese people, who uphold collectivism, see overseas crises sprawling to their country. Therefore, the rise in Abe’s approval rating actually signifies their expectations of ramping up international cooperation in the non-traditional security field.

The author is director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies, Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/905419.shtml

미키 에바라 <NHK> 편집장 인터뷰
일본인 인질 참수가 전세계적으로 보도되고 있다. 일본을 넘어 전 세계가 켄지 고토씨의 무사귀환을 기원했다.
그는 일본의 저명 언론인인 동시에 인권단체에서도 명망 높았다. 많은 시민들이 “나는 켄지다”라는 피켓을 들고 켄지 고토의 무사귀환을 바랐다. 심지어 시리아에서도 이런 피켓들이 등장했다. 켄지도 이런 감격적인 광경을 봤을까?

IS가 일본인 인질을 살해해서 무엇을 얻으려 했을까?
전세계를 공포에 빠뜨리기 위해서다. IS는 스스로를 알리기 위해 참혹한 행위를 저질렀다. IS는 비교적 역사가 짧은 단체다. 그들이 강대국을 위협할 수 있음을 보여주고 싶었을 것이다. 함께 인질이 붙잡힌 일본과 요르단 사이의 불화를 조성하고자 하는 의도도 있었을 것이다.

이번 사건이 일본에 어떤 영향을 끼칠 것이라고 생각하나?
장기적인 대외정책에 대해 고민하게 될 것이다. 이번 사건은 일본 국민들이 ‘중동은 우리와 아무 관련 없다’는 생각을 버리게 될 계기가 될 수 있다. 일본은 또한 어떻게 중동 사태에 관여해야 할지 고민에 빠질 것이다. 번역·요약 노지영 인턴기자

The Peaceful War Correspondent
Reflections on Kenji Goto with Miki Ebara, NHK WORLD’s Editor-in-Chief and foreign affairs correspondent. Interview aired February 1, 2015.

Q: The crisis made headlines around the world – and not just among Japanese. Many people outside Japan also called for Goto’s release.
A: He was known among journalists in Japan and people in humanitarian organizations, and as the crisis developed, more people learned about him too. It created a social media phenomenon; hundreds of people posted photos showing themselves holding a sign saying, “I Am Kenji”, to show their solidarity. I saw such posts even from inside Syria, which was moving. I wonder if Kenji somehow knew of them.

Q: Then what was the merit in taking hostage and killing the two Japanese men?
A: To terrorize people. This crisis has served Islamic State as a propaganda campaign. Many of us have been fixated on the news and learned about the group. Islamic State is a young organization – they want to prove they can blackmail governments of major countries. They need to recruit more people and get more donations. They may also have intended to drive a wedge between friendly nations such as Jordan and Japan. They probably wanted to cause tension within Jordanian society.

Q: What do you think about how this incident will impact on Japan?
A: In the long run, there may be more discussion of how Japan should contribute to world peace and security. This crisis has brought to mind among people in Japan that a conflict in the Middle East is no longer something they don’t have anything to do with. And so, how do we want to be involved in this? It’s a question for everyone to ask themselves.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/worldupdate/20150201.html