[세계언론 속 아시아] 우크라이나 사태, 중-러 협력 디딤돌?

우크라이나 사태로 중-러 협력관계 이룰까?

우크라이나 사태로 고립된 러시아가 중국과 협력관계를 증진시키고 있다. 그러나 중국이 러시아 지지를 계속할 것인지, 그리고 대만 등 자국 영토문제에서 러시아의 의견을 존중할 지 의문이다. 중국은 지난해 러시아의 크림반도 병합 당시 유엔안보리의 ‘크림 주민투표 무효’ 결의안 표결에서 기권한 적이 있다.

중국과 러시아 사이엔 세가지 차이점이 있다.

첫째, 중국과 러시아는 발전 당시 형성된 문화가 다르다. 러시아는 중세 키예프 공국을 시작으로 유럽에서 아시아, 시베리아까지 유라시아를 가로질러 영토를 확장했고, 당시 세계에서 거대한 제국이었다. 반면 중국은 고대문명발상지로서 5000년의 유구한 역사를 자랑한다. 중국 문화는 ‘공간적’ 개념이 아닌 ‘시간적’ 개념을 중시한다. 즉 영토확장보다는 중화 문화의 가치를 중요시 여긴다. 이러한 양국 문화 인식의 차이로 인해, 중국이 러시아처럼 영토확장에 열을 올리진 않을 것으로 보인다.

둘째, 양국 경제구조의 차이다. 세계 2위 경제대국 중국은 ‘세계화’ 물결 속에 수출과 투자로 큰 성과를 거뒀다. 중국은 외부의존도가 높기 때문에 타국과 우호적인 관계를 유지해야 한다. 반면 러시아는 세계 6위 경제규모로, 주로 에너지와 무기 수출에 의존한다. 에너지 수출이 국가소득 절반을 차지하며, 주 거래국가는 중국, EU, 우크라이나다. 이에 비해 중국의 주된 수출 파트너는 EU, 미국, 아세안(ASEAN) 등이다. 러시아의 대외의존도는 중국에 비해 상대적으로 낮고, 이는 국가의 대외정책에도 영향을 미쳤다.

마지막으로 미래를 향한 기대다. 러시아는 자신의 미래에 대해 나름대로 전망을 제시하고 있다. 하지만 중국 정부는 훨씬더 지속적으로 자국민에 ‘장밋빛 미래’를 제시해왔으며 지금도 제시하고 있다. 중국 국민들도 당국이 제시한 비전을 굳게 믿고 있다. 중국 국민들은 국가 발전에 해가 되는 무리한 행동은 하지 않을 것이다.

중국은 평화와 협력이 세계와 화합하는데 가장 중요한 덕목이란 것을 인지하고 있다. 중국은 서구와 맞서는 ‘러시아의 방식을’ 따를 필요가 없다.?번역·요약 노지영 인턴기자

China won’t emulate the “Crimea pattern” in territorial issues

Many observers ponder Russia’s international isolation after the Ukraine crisis and its increasing cooperation with China ? and are puzzled over not only Russia’s behavior but also about how close Russia and China could become. Will China continue to assist Russia? Could China follow Russia’s path in Crimea to handle Taiwan and other territorial issues?

China does not have to pick a side in the Ukraine crisis. But China should take such questions and comparisons seriously ? making it clear through public diplomacy that the country is not like Russia.

Just as the Russian involvement was intensifying, European countries worried about China’s historic territorial claims. During his first visit to Berlin in March 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping received a special gift from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the first precise map of China made by esteemed French cartographer Jean-Baptiste Bourguignon d’Anville in 1735. That year was the height of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), when the Emperor Qianlong ascended the throne. The map of China includes the Island of Sakhalin to the northeast, now Russia; Taiwan to the southeast, separated from the Chinese mainland since 1950; Ili River to the west, shared by China and Kazakhstan; Lake Baikal to the north in Siberia; and Hainan to the south.

Perhaps Russia’s annexation of Crimea gave rise to Merkel’s concern about the possible consequences of China’s rejuvenation or recall China the Russian expansion threat. She conveyed complicated information by presenting an antique map depicting ancient China with all its inseparable parts in ancient times.

Merkel’s concern is understandable as once war-ravaged European nations remain sensitive toward boundary-related issues. Border changes have always been a worry in Europe, posing a lethal threat to its peace and stability and dragging regional stakeholders into frequent battles.

Europeans could not have missed the allusion to historical claims in official Chinese pronouncements. Soon after receiving the gift from Merkel, Xi delivered a keynote speech at the College of Europe in Bruges on April. 1, 2014: “For any country in the world, the past always holds the key to the present and the present is always rooted in the past. Only when we know where a country has come from, could we possibly understand why the country is what it is today, and only then could we realize in which direction it is heading.”

Three factors show the differences between Russia and China on territorial issues:

First, consider their respective cultural conditioning ? the culture shaped during the development of the two nations distinguishes China from Russia. Russia began in the medieval state of Kievan Rus and then expanded from Europe to Asia to Siberia in the Far East, stretching across Eurasia, making it the world’s largest country in terms of territory.

In contrast, the vast grassland to the north, tributary states to the south, boundless sea to the east and the cloud-kissing Himalayas to the west have endowed China with a mentality of being a “Middle Kingdom.” As Xi noted in his address for the College of Europe, “Of the world’s ancient civilizations, the Chinese civilization has spanned over 5,000 years and continued uninterrupted to this day.”

Therefore, it is temporal logic, not spatial, that has dominated China’s culture. The nation values the natural appeal of its own culture, rather than geographical expansion, and this has historically suggested that China will not follow Russia’s path.

Secondly, from the perspective of their current economic positions, China and Russia differ in dependence on the rest of the world.

As the second largest economy in the world and a major participant in, beneficiary and builder of globalization, China relies on two engines, export and investment, to beef up economic growth. China’s external dependence prompts it to cooperate with other nations in a peaceful way.

China’s economy is fundamentally different from Russia’s, the world’s sixth largest, which mainly relies on energy and arms exports. Half of Russian national income comes from the export of energy. The top three trade partners for Russia are China, the EU and Ukraine while China’s are the EU, the US and ASEAN. With less economic reliance on the West, Russia can challenge the West, some of whose members though, must seek Russia’s energy and diplomatic clout.

Finally, China and Russia differ on expectations for the future.

Though Russians also yearn for bright prospects, the Chinese are more optimistic about their future according to various opinion polls. And affected by the mentality of changing oneself and influencing the world, the Chinese people firmly view the Chinese dream as consistent with the dream of other peoples. The Chinese will not ruin the country’s opportunities for strategic development with reckless ventures.

China has signed border agreements with almost all 14 countries it shares a land border with, the exceptions being India and Bhutan. Of course, maritime territory, rather a modern concept, has emerged as a major bone of contention with China’s Asian neighbors.

1. Taylor Fravel, an expert on Chinese strategy at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has pointed out that China, which embraces political compromise over the use force, tends to solve border disputes through negotiations.

The Chinese people have learned from their experience in modern times that peace, development, cooperation and win-win progress are the most significant values in getting along with the rest of the world.

China does not need to emulate Russia and is in no way obliged to follow Russia in confronting the West

http://english.cntv.cn/2015/02/09/ARTI1423447332618758.shtml