[1월21일 세계언론 속 아시아] 스리랑카 ‘민주화’ 성공, 미국 협조에 달렸다

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<뉴욕타임즈>시리세나 새 대통령, 라자팍사?정권 잔재 척결해야?

[아시아엔=편집국] 스리랑카가 라자팍사의 독재정권을 무너뜨리고 언론자유, 사법권 독립, 소수종교 및 민족을 존중하는 새 정부를 맞이했다. 존 케리 미 국무장관은 “마이트리팔라 시리세나 정부가 스리랑카의 변화를 이끌 것으로 본다”고 평가했다. 그러나 스리랑카 정치권엔 라자팍사 전 대통령과 동생 고타바야 라자팍사 전 국방장관의 영향력이 남아있다. 여러 정당의 지지를 받아 당선된 시리세나 대통령은 오는 4월 예정된 총선에서 승리해 권력기반을 강화해야 한다.

스리랑카 민주화 개혁에서 미국 역할은 무엇일까. 케리 장관은 미국이 스리랑카와 공조해 인권문제를 개선해야 한다고 주장했다. 이외에도 미 국무부는 라자팍사 전 대통령 시절 내전에서 발생한 전쟁범죄 UN조사단 출범에 앞장서왔다. 그러나 이번 조사는 지나치거나 느슨해서도 안 된다. 과도하게 진행되면, 전범의 책임을 묻는 과정에서 현 정권이 불안정해질 수 있고 미국과 스리랑카의 관계에도 악영향을 미칠 수 있다. 반대로 느슨할 경우, UN조사단의 권한이 약하기 때문에 전범을 처벌하기 어려울 것이다.

라자팍사 대통령의 동생 고타바야는 내란 당시 정부군을 이끌고 4만명을 학살했다. 그는 미국 시민권자로 LA에서 거주하며 로욜라 법대에서 컴퓨터시스템 운영자로 일한 바 있다. 스리랑카 국민들은 1996년 전쟁범죄법(War Crimes Act of 1996)에 따라 라자팍사 전 국방장관을 미국 시민권자로 인정하고 사법처리 권한을 미국에 넘길 것을 요구해왔다.

국민들은 민주개혁 과정에서 라자팍사 전 대통령보다 동생인 라자팍사 전 국방장관이 더 큰 장애물이라 여기고 있다. 실제로 그는 대선결과에 불복했으며, 군사쿠데타까지 시도한 것으로 알려졌다. 스리랑카 민주화가 성공하기 위해선 라자팍사 형제를 경계해야 한다. 만약 마힌다 라자팍사 전 대통령이 거대야당을 이끌게 된다면, 그의 복귀가 가시화될 수도 있다.

현 정부가 라자팍사 정권을 완전히 몰아내는 것은 힘들다. 그러나 미국이 고타바야 라자팍사가 미국 시민권자라는 점을 이용해 그에게 전범책임을 묻고 라자팍사 형제의 세력을 약화시킨다면 스리랑카의 민주화는 앞당겨질 전망이다. 번역·요약 노지영 인턴기자

Helping Sri Lanka’s New Democracy

Sri Lanka’s voters shocked themselves and the world this month by tossing out their president, who crushed the Tamil insurgency in 2009 and then led the country, along with his brother as defense secretary, to the brink of authoritarianism. The new president has promised to restore freedom of the press, independence of judges, and the rights of religious and ethnic minorities.
Democracy advocates, including Secretary of State John Kerry, say this is the country’s most important chance to open a new chapter in more than a decade.

But the country must make sure that members of the ousted regime do not return to power and that the new government can secure its authority. The United States ? and only the United States ? can do something to help make that happen.

The former president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, and his brother, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, aren’t politically dead yet. Critical parliamentary elections are scheduled for April. The new president, Maithripala Sirisena, rode to electoral victory on the back of a diverse group of parties. He must now consolidate his power so that democratic reform can go ahead.

What can the United States do to help? Mr. Kerry said the United States would take up longstanding human rights concerns with the new government. The State Department has spearheaded the creation of a United Nations investigation into war crimes committed under the Rajapaksa regime during the country’s civil war, which lasted from 1983 to 2009.

But that inquiry offers both too much and too little at this point. Too much, because pushing for full, sweeping accountability in this fragile moment of transition could destabilize the new government and jeopardize the warming of relations between the United States and Sri Lanka. Too little, because the United Nations investigation doesn’t have any teeth ? the panel leading it doesn’t have the powers of a criminal tribunal, and cannot even impose a financial penalty.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the former defense secretary, oversaw the Sri Lankan armed forces’ worst atrocities during the final stages of the civil war and, as it happens, he is a naturalized American citizen. (Indeed, he used to live in Los Angeles, where he worked as a computer systems operator at Loyola Law School.)

As a citizen, Mr. Rajapaksa can be held liable under the War Crimes Act of 1996, which puts war crimes anywhere in the world under the jurisdiction of United States courts if the perpetrator, or the victim, is a United States citizen. Put another way, the United States has a perfect justification to go after Mr. Rajapaksa individually.

Independent observers have long viewed Gotabaya Rajapaksa as an obstacle, perhaps even more than his brother, to a smooth political transition in Sri Lanka. There is little indication that he will respect the new government, which has opened an investigation to look into widely reported allegations that he and his brother attempted to engineer a military coup to overturn the election results.

It is in the new government’s interest to move decisively to protect its democratic victory by eliminating the threat of Mr. Rajapaksa’s return to power. That is a distinct possibility if his brother, Mahinda, succeeds in a bid to maintain control over the powerful opposition party.

But proceeding against Mr. Rajapaksa will be politically challenging for the new Sri Lankan government to do on its own. The United States could help by signaling its own interest in opening a criminal case against Mr. Rajapaksa in the event that Sri Lanka doesn’t. That would give the new government both an opportunity and a justification to clean its house. Because of Mr. Rajapaksa’s citizenship, the United States would also be less vulnerable to accusations that it was meddling in the affairs of another nation.

The Obama administration might even say, in a very public way, that it will decide whether to proceed with its own criminal inquiry after giving Sri Lanka’s new establishment an opportunity to move first. Such signals from the United States could help politically marginalize the Rajapaksas at a critical point in the life of the country. They would also bolster President Sirisena’s efforts to have the country repudiate the past and recognize that its best future lies with his administration. The United States should do its part to bring accountability to Sri Lanka and assist its transition to democracy.

Ryan Goodman is a professor of law, politics and sociology at New York University and co-editor in chief of the blog Just Security.