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‘사상 최대 규모 경쟁’ ‘선거구 조정’ ‘트럼프 발 관세’ 모두 야당에 불리하게 작용
[아시아엔=아이반 림 싱가포르 스트레이트타임즈 전 선임기자] 2025년 5월 3일 치러진 싱가포르 총선의 결과는 애초부터 예견돼 있었다. 집권 여당인 인민행동당(PAP)이 재집권할 것이라는 점에는 유권자, 정치평론가, 심지어 제1야당인 노동당(WP)조차 이견이 없었다.1959년 이후 단 한 번도 정권을 놓친 적 없는 PAP에 관점에서 본다면 이번 선거의 변수는 ‘승리 여부’가 아니라 ‘야당이 얼마나 많은 표를 가져갈 것인가’였다. 결과는 예상을 빗나가지 않았다. PAP는 전체 93개 선거구 중 83곳을 차지했고, 득표율도 61.24%로 2020년과 동일했다.
2025년 5월 열린 싱가포르 총선에는 WP, 진보 싱가포르당(PSP), 싱가포르민주당(SDP) 등 기존 야당 외에도 레드닷유나이티드, 국민연대당(NSP), 인민권력당(PPP) 등 신생 정당이 가세했다. 여기에 무소속 후보 2명까지 더해져 싱가포르 사상 최대 규모의 경쟁 구도가 형성됐다. 이는 정치적 관심과 참여의 증가로 해석될 수도 있지만, 결론적으로 표가 분산되는 부작용을 초래해 여당에 유리하게 작용됐다.
예상대로 WP를 제외한 군소 야당의 성적표는 비참했다. 특히 PPP, NSP, 레드딧유나이트드의 후보자들은 12.5%의 득표율을 확보하지 못해 13,500 싱가포르달러(약 1,435만원)에 달하는 기탁금을 몰수당하기도 했다.
이번 총선에서 가장 큰 기대를 모은 야당은 단연 WP였다. 전문직을 두루 경험한 저명인사들이 대거 출마하며 여론의 관심도가 집중됐고, 이들의 유세 현장은 수천의 인파로 가득했다. “Workers’ Party!”라는 이들의 슬로건이 유세 현장 곳곳에서 울려퍼졌지만 결과는 다소 아쉬웠다.
WP는 퐁골, 탐피니스 등 주요 지역구에서 40% 이상의 득표율을 기록하며 나름 선전했지만 최우선 목표인 의석 확보에는 실패했다. 여당인 PAP도 이들 지역구에서 헹 스위킷 부총리와 마사고스 줄키플리 사회가족개발부 장관 등 정부의 핵심 인사들을 내세우며 맞섰기 때문이다. 그럼에도 WP는 알주니드(59.95%), 셍강(53.39%), 호강(62.16%) 등의 선거구를 수성하며 10명의 국회의원을 재입성 시켰다. 또한 탐피니스(46.64%)와 잘란카유(48.31%)에서 석패한 후보들이 비선출 의원으로 선임되며 2석을 추가로 확보했다.
지난 총선은 공식 선거운동이 시작되기도 전부터 선거구 조정 논란으로 시끌벅쩍했다. 선거 두 달 전 총리실 산하 선거부가 인구수 변화를 이유로 선거구를 조정했으나, 야권은 노골적인 ‘게리맨더링’(선거구 조작)이라며 비판의 날을 세웠다.
가장 논란이 컸던 지역구는 두 곳이다. 그 중 한 곳은 PSP의 탄 청복 박사가 2020년 총선에서 48.31%의 득표율로 박빙의 승부를 펼쳤던 웨스트코스트 선거구다. 이번 선거에선 PAP의 지지 기반인 주롱 지역의 유권자 41,000명이 웨스트코스터 선거구에 새로이 편입됐다. 또다른 선거구는 SDP의 치 순 주안 박사가 출마한 부킷 바톡 선거구다. 이 지역 역시 주롱과 통합되면서 야당에게 불리하게 재편됐다는 지적이 나왔다. 결국 PSP는 득표율이 39.99%로 하락하면서 기존 의석 두 자리를 모두 잃었고, 치 박사도 득표율 46.81%를 기록하며 선전했지만 낙선하고 말았다.
예상치 못한 외부 요인도 선거에 영향을 미쳤다. 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 발표한 싱가포르산 제품에 대한 10% 기본 관세가 주요 이슈로 부상한 것이다. PAP는 이를 근거로 “일자리와 소득 부문의 장기적 타격이 불가피하다”며 여권에 힘을 실어줄 것을 호소했고, 야당은 “공포를 유발하려는 과장된 선동”이라고 맞섰다. 결과적으로 트럼프 발 변수는 유권자들의 ‘안정 지향 심리’를 자극해 야권의 열풍을 잠재웠다는 분석이 지배적이다.
지난 총선이 야당에 다소 불리하게 치러졌다고 볼 수도 있지만 각 정당은 이들의 위치에 상응하는 성적표를 받았다. PAP는 과반을 훌쩍 넘는 의석을 확보하며 정권을 유지했고, 노동당은 야권의 대들보로 그 자리를 지켰다. 기타 야당들은 단 한 석도 얻지 못한 채 거대한 벽을 다시 한번 실감할 수밖에 없었다.
Singapore’s 2025 Election: Stability at the Ballot, Strains Beneath
by Ivan Lim
Singapore General Election (GE) on May 3 that returned the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) to another five-year term had its fair share of foregone conclusions, controversies, shocks, as well as surprises.
That the PAP would regain power was a widely held view among most Singaporeans of every political stripe, including the dominant opposition Workers’ Party (WP). No one doubted that the PAP, which has entrenched itself since 1959, was in any danger of losing its grip despite Lee Kuan Yew’s dire warning about its potential downfall.
The outcome: the PAP won 83 out of the 93 electoral wards in contest, representing 61.24 percent of the popular vote. This was a slight decrease from its 2020 result of 83 out of 93 seats and a 61.24 percent vote share.
Arrayed against the PAP were multiple opposition parties, ranging from the established Workers’ Party, Progress Singapore Party (PSP), and Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) to the newer National Solidarity Party (NSP), People’s Alliance Reform (PAR), Red Dot United, and People’s Power Party (PPP).
While the increased number of contestants indicated a higher level of political participation, observers criticized the splitting of opposition votes, which worked to the ruling party’s advantage. Additionally, there were two independent candidates.
Not surprisingly, all opposition party candidates except those from the WP polled poorly in the election. Candidates from PPP, NSP, and Red Dot United suffered a “wipe-out,” with three posting below 12.5 percent of the vote and losing their election deposits of SGD 13,500 each.
For the WP, the big surprise was that the rousing reception it received during nine days of night rallies did not fully translate into victories at the ballot box. The party fielded a formidable slate of high-profile professionals, including a Senior Counsel, whose speeches attracted thunderous chants of “Workers’ Party, Workers’ Party” from supporters across the rally grounds.
The party’s 10 lawmakers’ performance in Parliament and in managing town councils in their wards had inspired voter confidence in their attempts to contest new constituencies.
Thus, going into the final phase of intense campaigning, expectations were high that the WP could swing voters and capture Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs) consisting of three or four members, plus one or two Single Member Constituencies (SMCs).
However, the WP made inroads in the strongly contested Punggol and Tampines GRCs, securing over 40 percent of the votes but still lost to the PAP. The ruling party fielded teams anchored by Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat in the newly created Punggol ward and by the Minister for Social and Family Development Masagos Zulkifli.
Despite this, the WP’s massive and spirited following delivered votes that allowed it to retain the Aljunied GRC (59.95 percent majority), Sengkang GRC (53.39 percent), as well as the single-member ward of Hougang (62.16 percent), in the face of strong PAP challenges. These victories meant the WP maintained 10 elected MPs in the new Parliament. The party also secured two Non-Constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP) seats for the best-performing losing candidates in Tampines GRC (46.64 percent) and Jalan Kayu SMC (48.31 percent), contests won by the PAP.
Two months before the polls, the Elections Department under the Prime Minister’s Office reviewed and altered the electoral boundaries, citing population shifts as justification.
Opposition parties criticized these changes as “gerrymandering,” claiming that redrawing the electoral boundaries placed them at a disadvantage by diluting opposition votes and enhancing pro-PAP votes.
Two notable examples involved opposition strongholds. One was the West Coast GRC, where the PSP, led by former PAP stalwart Dr. Tan Cheng Bock, came close to winning with 48.31 percent of the vote against the PAP’s 51.69 percent in the 2020 general election. The West Coast five-member constituency was reconfigured to include 41,000 voters from Jurong GRC, a PAP bastion.
Another was the Bukit Batok Single Member Constituency, which SDP Secretary-General Chee Soon Juan alleged was merged with Jurong GRC to weaken opposition chances.
Predictably, the PSP suffered a setback in this GE, with its vote share falling to 39.99 percent and consequently losing the two NCMP seats it had previously held.
Similarly, Dr. Chee was defeated in the new Sembawang West SMC ward, though he performed creditably with 46.81 percent of the votes against PAP rival Poh Li San’s 53.19 percent.
Unexpectedly, President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, including a baseline 10 percent tariff on Singapore, became an issue during the general election. The ruling party warned voters about the long-term impact on jobs and income, while opposition parties called the comments “overblown” and intended to instill fear.
Nonetheless, this crisis element led to a “flight to safety” among voters and helped check the shift of support toward the Workers’ Party, as seen in the relatively close contests in Tampines and Punggol GRCs, where the WP looked poised to win based on rally crowd sizes.
With its twists and turns, the GE might not have been entirely fair to the opposition, but it delivered a harsh verdict on all contestants. The PAP returned to power with a super-majority, and the WP remained the dominant opposition in Parliament.
Other opposition parties were left empty-handed to consider their future in the changing political landscape.cent tariff on Singapore, became an issue during the general election. The ruling party warned voters about the long-term impact on jobs and income, while opposition parties called the comments “overblown” and intended to instill fear.
Nonetheless, this crisis element led to a “flight to safety” among voters and helped check the shift of support toward the Workers’ Party, as seen in the relatively close contests in Tampines and Punggol GRCs, where the WP looked poised to win based on rally crowd sizes.
With its twists and turns, the GE might not have been entirely fair to the opposition, but it delivered a harsh verdict on all contestants. The PAP returned to power with a super-majority, and the WP remained the dominant opposition in Parliament.
Other opposition parties were left empty-handed to consider their future in the changing political landscape.
