파키스탄 ‘헝 의회’, 역사는 반복된다

*아시아엔 해외필진 기고문을 한글번역본과 원문을 함께 게재합니다.

[아시아엔=나시르 아이자즈 아시아엔 파키스탄 지부장, 신드쿠리에 편집장]

2024년 2월 8일 파키스탄에서 임기 5년의 총선거가 실시됐다. 그 결과 임란 칸 전 총리가 이끄는 파키스탄정의운동(PTI) 출신 무소속 후보 진영이 101석을 차지했으며, 나와즈 샤리프 전 총리의 파키스탄무슬림연맹-나와즈(PML-N)는 75석, 빌라왈 부토 자르다리 전 외교장관이 총재로 있는 파키스탄인민당(PPP)은 54석을 차지했다.

그러나 그 어떤 정당도 독자적인 내각을 구성하지 못하면서 의회가 소집되지 않았다. 모든 정당이 과반 의석 확보에 실패한 이른바 ‘헝(Hung) 의회’ 상황에 처한 것이다.

파키스탄에선 기득권층의 정략에 의해 이른바 ‘헝 의회’가 반세기 넘게 이어져왔다. 1947년 인도대륙의 분할에 의해 파키스탄이 건국한 이래 국민의 선출직이 아닌 민간-군부 연합세력의 제헌의회가 1970년까지 23년간 국가를 통치해 왔다. 이는 불행의 씨앗이었다. 무력한 입법부는 통치권력에 의해 수시로 해산됐으며 헌법도 무시되기 일쑤였다.

파키스탄은 1970년 셰이크 무지브 라만이 이끄는 아와미연맹(Awami League)이 동파키스탄에서 압도적인 승리를 거두면서 서파키스탄과의 갈등이 생겨 빚어 국가 분열의 위기를 맞았다. 1971년 12월 인도-파키스탄 전쟁이 발발했고, 그 와중에 동파키스탄은 방글라데시로 독립해 나갔다.

그 후 줄피카르 알리 부토가 이끄는 PPP가 최대 정당으로 부상했지만 그들 역시 독자적인 정부 구성이 불가능했다. 1973년 결국 부토는 대통령이자 민간 출신의 계엄사령관으로 헌법을 제정하고 연립정부를 구성할 때까지 국가를 통치할 것이라 선언했다. 부토의 임기 5년이 끝나갈 무렵 열린 1977년 3월 총선에서 그는 압도적인 승리를 거뒀다. 그러나 야당들은 그 결과를 인정하지 않았고 전국에서 소요를 일으켰다. 이 틈을 타 당시 육군참모총장 지아 장군이 군사쿠데타를 일으켜 11년간 계엄통치를 이어갔고 부토 대통령은 쿠데타 세력에 의해 교수형에 처해졌다.

독재자 지아 장군이 1988년 8월 비행기 사고로 갑작스레 사망하자 굴람 이샤크 칸이 대통령직을 승계해 같은 해 10월 총선거를 치렀다. 이때 줄피카르 알리 부토의 딸 베나지르 부토가 이끄는 PPP가 최대 정당으로 급부상했으나 정치적 기반이 취약했던 부토 정부 역시 1990년 8월 해산됐다. 3개월 후 열린 선거에서 PML 분파를 이끌던 미안 나와즈 샤리프가 총리가 선출되었지만, 1993년 의회 해산과 함께 물러났다. 그 직후 선거에서 베나지르 부토가 생애 두번째로 총리에 선출됐지만 이번에도 ‘헝 의회’로 고전했고, 결국 1996년 의회가 다시 해산돼 총리직을 내려놓았다.

그로부터 3개월 후 실시된 총선에서 나와즈 샤리프가 정권을 잡았지만 그의 정당인 PML-N도 과반 이상의 다수당이 되지는 못했다. 샤리프 총리 정부는 1999년 페르베즈 무샤라프 육군 참모총장의 쿠데타에 의해 전복됐다. 무샤라프 장군은 그로부터 9년간 권력의 실세로 자리를 지키며 총리를 만들었다가 의회를 해산하기를 두차례 반복했다.

그러던 중 2007년 12월 PPP 당수 베나지르 부토가 암살당하고 2008년 3월 선거가 치러지면서 또다른 헝 의회가 탄생했다. PPP는 살해된 베나지르 부토의 남편 아시드 알리 자르다리를 국가원수로, 유시프 라자 길라니를 총리로 정부를 구성했으나 2012년 6월 헌법재판소 판결에 의해 직을 상실했다. PPP는 라자 페르베즈 아슈라프를 총리로 선출했으나 2013년 자리에서 물러났다. 뒤이어 나와즈 샤리프가 이끄는 PML-N당이 집권했지만 2017년 7월 나와즈 샤리프 총리가 법원 판결로 자격을 박탈당하며 샤히드 카칸 아바시 당 대표가 총리직을 승계했다. 아바시 총리 의회 역시 1년을 채우지 못한 채 2018년 5월 해산되었다. 그후 크리켓 전 국가대표 임란 칸이 이끄는 PTI가 정권을 잡았지만 칸 또한 ‘헝 의회’와 연정의 늪에서 벗어나지 못하며 2022년 4월 자리를 내려놨다.

최근 실시된 총선도 ‘헝 의회’로 시작부터 삐걱거리고 있다. 임란 칸의 PTI가 최대 정당이 됐지만 과반수에 필요한 137석에는 미치지 못해 PTI, PML-N 등은 연립정부를 구성하기 위해 소규모 정당 및 무소속 의원들과 협상하고 있다. 파키스탄의 ‘헝 의회’ 역사는 언제까지 반복될 것인가?

Hung Parliament in Pakistan: History repeats itself
Nasir Aijaz, The AsiaN Representative Islamabad, Pakistan

General elections for the National Assembly for the new tenure of five years were held on February 8, 2024 in Pakistan but even after two weeks’ time, neither the inaugural session of the assembly has been summoned nor has any political party been able to claim forming the government. Such a situation has developed because of Hung Parliament, where no political party has won the election with absolute majority. As a result of the election, independent candidates from the Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI) led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan won 101 seats, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) won 75 seats, and the Pakistani People’s Party (PPP), headed by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, won 54.

This is the result of the vote count for 262 out of 266 districts (assemblies) in the federal House of Representatives, excluding those whose votes were postponed due to the death of candidates.

With a Hung Parliament, the history has once again repeated itself in Pakistan. In fact, the results were not unexpected. In view of the policies and strategies adopted by the powerful Establishment, the political pundits had already predicted a Hung Parliament, which the country had been witnessing for over half a century. Pakistan came into being in 1947 as a result of partition of Indian subcontinent and unfortunately, the newly created country was administered by civil and military rulers for 23 years with ad hoc constitutions and non-elected assemblies named as ‘Constituent Assembly’. These legislatives were so weak that they were frequently dissolved and constitutions abrogated by the rulers.

It was 1970, when the first ever general elections were held, also under a military government, but the results, showing strong position of Awami League, led by Sheikh Mujeeb Rahman in Eastern wing (Former East Pakistan) were not accepted by Punjab-dominated political parties in Western wing of Pakistan (West Pakistan) resulting in political crisis. In the meantime, war between India and Pakistan broke out in December 1971 and the country was dismembered with independence of Bangladesh.

In remaining part of the country, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto emerged as single largest party but not in a position to form the government without support of other smaller parties – thus Bhutto ruled the country as President and Civilian Martial Administrator till 1973 when he gave a constitution to the country and formed the coalition government amidst a hung parliament.

In March 1977, Bhutto held the general elections ahead of the end of his 5-year term, sweeping the polls, but none of the opposition parties accepted the results and launched country-wide agitation, which culminated with military coup by the then Army Chief Gen. Zia and imposition of Martial Law for eleven years and got hanged Bhutto through judiciary in a fake murder case. The Military Dictator held non-party basis elections in 1985, wherein a political party named as Pakistan Muslim League (PML) was formed with Muhammad Khan Junejo chosen as Prime Minister under the umbrella of military government, soon the weak premier was ousted by his Master.

Dictator Gen. Zia died in air crash in August 1988 and Ghulam Ishaq Khan took over as President, held elections in October same year. Again, PPP, led by Benazir Bhutto, the daughter of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, emerged as single largest party but could form the coalition government in December 1988 due to hung parliament. Her weak government was too dismissed and assembly dissolved by President in August 1990, and fresh elections held after three months. This time, Mian Nawaz Sharif, who led a faction of PML, became the Prime Minister but ousted in 1993 by the same President. Elections were held afresh and Benazir Bhutto became the Prime Minister for second tenure with a hung parliament. Again her government was dismissed by her own party’s nominated President Ghulam Farooque Leghari in 1996.

Country witnessed another general election after three months and Nawaz Sharif came into power with same hung parliament, as his party PML-N couldn’t achieve absolute majority. He was too overthrown by Army Chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf in 1999, who ruled the country for nine years. The new Military Dictator held elections in 2002 with creation of hung parliament. Mir Zaffarull Jamali was made the Prime Minister who had to resign in June 2004 and Shoukat Aziz was sworn in as the new Prime Minister. In 2007, the hung parliament completed its tenure.
In the meantime, PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in December 2007 and elections were held in March 2008, again with creation of hung parliament. This time PPP formed the government with Asid Ali Zardari, the husband of slain Benazir Bhutto, as head of state and Yousif Raza Gilani as Prime Minister. Owing to hung parliament and opposition’s strategy, Yousif Raza Gilani was disqualified under a court verdict in June 2012. PPP brought its other leader Raja Pervez Ashraf as premier, who could rule till 2013 when the hung parliament and coalition government were dissolved on completion of five-year term.

From 2013, the PML-N, led by Nawaz Sharif ruled the country but they faced the same fate when in July 2017, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified through a court verdict and his party leader Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was sworn in as the Prime Minister. The parliament was dissolved in May 2018 on completion of tenure and holding polls under a caretaker government within ninety days.

This time Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan was brought to power by the Establishment but with a hung parliament and a coalition government. He faced same fate as he was ousted in April 2022. The recent general elections have resulted in a hung parliament, with no single party or coalition winning enough seats to form a government on its own. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, led by former cricketer Imran Khan, emerged as the largest party in the National Assembly but fell short of the 137 seats needed for a majority.

Till the filing of this analytical piece, PTI, PML-N and PPP were seen negotiating with smaller parties and independent lawmakers to form a coalition government.