임기 말 파키스탄 셰바즈 총리‥임란 칸 전 총리 자충수에도 ‘갈팡질팡’

*아시아엔 해외필진 기고문의 한글번역본과 원문을 함께 게재합니다.

[아시아엔=나시르 아이자즈 ‘아시아엔’ 파키스탄 지부장] 셰바즈 샤리프 총리가 이끄는 파키스탄 연립정부가 2023년 8월 첫 주 또는 둘째 주에 해산될 것으로 보인다. 파키스탄 국회의원의 5년 임기가 곧 끝나기 때문이다.

파키스탄 헌법에 따라 3개월 이내에 의원 선거가 실시될 예정이며, 새로운 입법부를 바탕으로 새로운 정부가 구성된다. 파키스탄은 2018년 7월 총선을 치렀는데, 당시 임란 칸 전 총리가 이끄는 PTI 당은 대규모 선거조작 의혹에도 불구하고 승리를 거뒀었다.

2022년 4월 10일 파키스탄 이슬람연맹과 인민당 등 야권은 임란 칸 총리에 대한 불신임 투표를 통과시킨 후 연립정부을 구성했다. PTI 정부는 △부패 스캔들 △범죄와의 전쟁 실패 △인플레이션과 실업 △과도한 외채 부담 등 여러 문제를 야기하며 권력을 놓쳤지만, 새로운 연립정부도 상황을 반전시키진 못했다.

파키스탄은 정치불안과 경제위기 등 여러 문제점을 떠안고 있다. 선심성 정책을 남발하여 전례 없는 인플레이션이 발생했고, 국가재정을 충당하기 위한 막대한 세금이 부과되는 악순환이 반복됐다. 특히 파키스탄 제조업의 적지 않은 비중을 차지했던 자동차산업이 수입제한과 석유 및 가스, 전기 등의 비용 상승으로 힘을 잃었다.

생활필수품의 가격 급등은 중산층 이하의 삶을 더욱 힘겹게 만들었다. 파키스탄이 채무불이행을 선언할 것이라는 흉흉한 소문이 퍼질 당시 엎친데 덮친 격으로 폭우와 홍수로 국토 대부분이 황폐화되기까지 했다.

경제침체 속에 임란 칸 전 총리가 뇌물수수 및 횡령 등 수십 건의 혐의로 법정에 오르자 그의 지지자들은 현 정권에 대한 선동을 일삼으며 파키스탄 정치권에도 진흙탕 싸움이 벌어졌다. 대법원장을 비롯한 일부 대법권들도 임란 칸 지지를 선언하며 노골적으로 현 정부에 반하는 정치적인 발언을 하기 시작했다. 이는 사법부가 특정 정당에 편향돼 있다는 메시지로 받아들여졌으며, 소셜미디어에는 ‘사법쿠데타’를 우려하는 글들이 쏟아졌다.

5월 9일, 정부가 임란 칸 전 총리를 체포하자 결국 소요사태가 발생했다. PTI 당원들과 신원 미상의 지지자들이 카라치, 페샤와르, 라호르 등 파키스탄 전역에서 대중교통 시설과 정부 시설을 파괴하고 방화한 것이다. 이들은 심지어 라호르에 위치한 군단장의 집에도 불을 질렀다. 이는 파키스탄 군에 대한 직접적인 공격으로 간주됐다.

이에 대해 파키스탄 군 당국은 “군 시설에 대한 공격은 사전에 계획된 것”이라며 현직 중장을 포함한 육군 장교 3명을 파면하고, 15명을 징계조치 했다. 당국에 따르면 전직 군인 가족도 사건에 연루돼 있어 퇴직 4성 장군과 그의 가족도 체포됐다.

일련의 사태의 원흉인 임란 칸은 소요사태가 자신의 상승세를 반영한다고 생각했으나 오판이었다. PTI 핵심간부와 보좌진을 포함한 수백명의 당원들이 이 사건을 비난하면서 임란 칸의 정치적 몰락이 시작됐다. 이들은 당직 사퇴와 탈당 등을 통해 임란 칸과의 관계를 끊었다. 파키스탄 정부도 임란 칸의 방송 출연과 성명 발표를 금지시켰다.

지지자들의 폭동으로 임란 칸이 고립됐지만, 셰바즈 샤리프 총리 역시 돌파구를 찾지 못하고 있다. 샤리프 총리 집권 기간 서민층 이하의 삶은 더욱 각박해진 반면 국회의원과 사법부 고위 공직자들에 대한 금전적인 혜택은 늘어났다. 이로 인해 국민 대중들의 비난이 샤리프 총리한테 쏠리고 있다. 마침내 파키스탄은 IMF로부터 30억달러(약 3조8천억원) 상당의 차관을 들여올 수밖에 없는 지경에 이르렀다. 파키스탄 앞날은 과연 어디를 향해 나아갈 것인가.

Pakistan: An Overview of Economic and Political Situation
By Nasir Aijaz, The AsiaN Representative

The current coalition government of Pakistan, headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, will cease to be in power in first week or latest by second week of August 2023, as according to constitutional requirement, the National Assembly and all the provincial legislatives are to be dissolved on completion of their 5-year term.

Under the constitution, a Caretaker government is to be formed to conduct fresh polls within three months for electing the new legislatives for next tenure. The fresh polls are expected to be held by the October end but political observers have predicted that the elections could be held sometime in November. The last election was held in July 2018 when Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), headed by Imran Khan, was declared the winner amidst allegations of massive rigging.

The coalition government of Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and some other political parties came into power after ousting Prime Minister Imran Khan through a Vote of No Confidence motion tabled at midnight on April 10, 2022.

Although, the PTI government, also a coalition, was removed on the allegations of its involvement in corruption, utter failure in combating crimes, inflation, unemployment and other several issues including economic crisis and overburdening the country with foreign loans, the situation further worsened soon as the new coalition assumed the reins.

The country plunged into manifold crises including economic turmoil and political unrest, as on one hand, the new rulers, who had pledged to offer relief to the masses, imposed heavy taxes giving way to unprecedented inflation, restricted imports that caused closure of several industries, especially the automobile industries, who used to import machinery and accessories for assembling the vehicles in Pakistan, and the petroleum, gas and electricity tariffs were doubled. As a result, production of automobiles came to stand still, thousands of employees were laid off, and the prices of vehicles shot up to unaffordable level. The skyrocketing prices of essential commodities made the lives of poor and middle class people miserable. A time came when the rumors spread that Pakistan is about to be declared as ‘Defaulting Country’, however, the nature came to the rescue of rulers with heavy monsoon rains and flash floods ravaging most parts of country, and the world opened its coffers to help Pakistan.

Amidst such an economic downfall, the country faced political violence, as the deposed Prime Minister Imran Khan had launched a series of failed agitations against the rulers, who had opened dozens of cases against him in the courts including selling of precious gifts he received from foreign dignitaries as head of the government, plunder of national exchequer, receiving hundreds of millions rupees (Pakistan currency) as kickback from a notorious builder of the country.

The situation took a new turn when a Tug of War began between the government and the judiciary after the Chief Justice and some other judges of Supreme Court not only favored Imran Khan but also started making political remarks openly against the government. It sent a clear message that a section of judiciary has become a party. The social media was flooded with comments and apprehensions of ‘Judicial Coup’ in the country.

And now comes the violent day of May 9, when the government agencies arrested Imran Khan from the premises of Islamabad court. Soon as the news of arrest spread by media through live coverage, the PTI workers and their unidentified ‘supporters’ set public transport vehicles and sensitive government installations on fire in Karachi, Peshawar, Lahore and some other cities causing huge losses. Most serious incident was rampage and setting ablaze the Corps Commander’s house in Lahore. This was considered a direct attack on military.

The PTI leadership and its ‘unidentified’ supporters stood exposed when Maj. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, Director General of Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of military, addressed a press conference and said that the attacks were pre-planned. “The planning of attacks on Army’s offices and installations was carried out months before May 9,” he said and informed the media that three army officers including a Lt. General have been sacked while action was taken against 15 other army officers. According to him ex-servicemen and their family members were also involved who will face the action. A granddaughter of a retired 4-star General and a son-in-law of a retired 4-star General are among those arrested.

Imran Khan, who thought that his popularity graph is showing upward trend being in opposition, had to face his political downfall as hundreds of his party men including his key party leaders and aides not only condemned the incidents but started parting was with him. They all publicly announced resignations and leaving the PTI. The government also put ban on airing and publishing statements of Imran Khan.

While Imran Khan stands isolated as a result of violent attacks on army installations, the coalition government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is being condemned by the poor masses for making their lives miserable and enhancing financial benefits for the parliament members and judiciary despite severe economic crises that has made it to seek IMF loan worth three billion dollars.

Let’s wait and watch what happens in future.